Analysis of Hands from December 11, 2004
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Bonus Section - Responses over Weak 2 Bids
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During the December synagogue bridge club, my partner opened 2H, and I held the following hand:

S Axx
H Ax
D Axxx
C Axxx

This is a good exercise in bidding visualization, rather than simply relying on point count.
If partner's six card suit includes the KQ, we can make exactly 3NT - 6 heart tricks and 3 aces,
assuming a 3-2 break. Unless partner also holds an outside K, we cannot make 4H.

Fortunately, there is a useful convention over weak 2 bids that Ava and I use that can provide
the necessary information.

Ogust 2NT over Weak 2 Bids
--------------------------

If partner opens a weak 2 bid, if you respond 2NT, you are asking partner for further clarification
about his/her hand. In particular, partner evaluates 2 different aspects about the hand:

Suit Strength
  Good: 6 card suit contains 2 of top 3 honors (e.g. AK, AQ, or KQ)
  Bad: suit does not contain 2 of top 3 honors
  
Point Strength:
  Good: 8-10 points
  Bad:  5-7 points

The responses to 2NT are as follows:

Bid  Suit Points
---  ---- ------

3C   Bad  Bad
3D   Good Bad
3H   Bad  Good
3S   Good Good

Some people also play that a response of 3NT shows a solid 6 card suit (headed by AKQ).

The responses can be fairly easy to remember if you realize that the minors show a
bad point count and the majors show a good point count.

On the hand above, this is what I decided the final contract would be for each of the responses:

3C - 3H
3D - 3NT
3H - 3H
3S - 3NT (4H would also be ok)

Generally speaking, you should have at least 14 points before using Ogust.
With anything less than that, the chances of game are remote, 
so you might as well keep the contract as low as possible.

Direct Raises Over Weak 2 Bids
------------------------------

With 4 card support, immediately raise to 4. This is consistent with the philosophy that you
should always play in 4 of a major with a 10 card fit.

With 3 card support (and less than 14 points), immediately raise to 3. This is known
as "furthering the pre-empt". This is consistent with the previously discussed 
"Law of Total Tricks" principle which says that you should be willing to contract
for the same number of tricks as the number of combined trumps 
(e.g. your side has 9 trumps, so you should be willing to contract for 9 tricks).

Hand 1
------

    S AKJ86
    H J96
    D A4
    C J62

S 10752      S 4
H AKQ1052    H 4
D Q3         D 109865
C 7          C Q109843

    S Q93
    H 873
    D KJ72
    C AK5

Dealer: S
Vulnerable: E/W

Bidding
-------
S  W  N  E
1D 1H 1S P
2S P  4S P
P  P

The first round of bidding is standard. The problem is South's second bid.
North's 1S bid only promises 4, so a 2S raise generally shows 4; sometimes
you can raise with 3 to an honor if your hand also contains a singleton
or void. If West hadn't overcalled in hearts, South should bid 1NT.
However, with this auction 1NT should promise a heart stopper, so South's
only real choice is to bid 2S. Since N has 5 spades and an opening hand,
the 4S bid is automatic.

Play
------
Opening lead: Heart 4

North loses the first 3 heart tricks. North also has a club loser which must be
eliminated to make the contract. The most likely way to accomplish this is to
finesse the J of diamonds and throw a club on the K of diamonds. There is also
a small chance that the Q of clubs will drop in 2 rounds, so the J of clubs 
will be good.

Therefore, North should draw trump, noting that West started with 4.
North then plays the A and K of clubs, noting West's singleton club. 
Therefore, West was known to start with a doubleton diamond.
North now gets back to his hand with the A of diamonds.
Before taking the diamond finesse, if North cashes the last spade, North knows
the following about each hand:

    S 
    H 
    D x
    C J

S            S 
H x          H 
D ?          D ?
C            C Q

    S 
    H 
    D KJ
    C 

Therefore, South can lead to the K of diamonds, knowing that the Q of diamonds
will appear.

As a general technique, when you have a single potential loser remaining, it is usually
a good idea to cash all your side winners before facing "the moment of truth". Often, your
opponents will make a helpful discard. If not, you can often deduce extra information about
what to do, as happened on this hand.

Hand 2
------

    S 8653
    H 10632
    D Q42
    C A9

S AKQ        S 42
H 9          H AKQ7
D 8765       D AK1093
C KQJ42      C 85

    S J1097
    H J854
    D J
    C 10763

Dealer: N
Vulnerable: E/W

Bidding
-------
N  E  S  W
P  1D P  2C
P  2H P  3D
P  3H P  4N
P  5C P  6D
P  P  P

The first round of bidding is standard. East's 2H bid is a reverse,
showing a medium or high hand (15 or more points) with at least 5 diamonds
and 4 hearts. West now knows that a diamond slam is likely and bids
3D to set the suit; East cannot pass because West has shown at least 10 points,
so the auction is forcing to at least game. East cannot bid 3NT with no spade
stopper, so the 3H bid is simply a waiting bid, allowing West to bid 3NT with
a spade stopper. West bids Roman Key Card Blackwood, East shows 3 key cards
(two Aces and the diamond K), and East bids the diamond slam.

Play
------
Opening lead: Spade J

East has a club loser, and a possible diamond loser. The most likely way to
make the contract is to play for a 2-2 diamond break. East can also play for
a defensive mistake, by leading towards the K of clubs, hoping South ducks the Ace,
and throwing the other club loser on the long spade (unlikely, but you never know).

East wins the first spade and leads a trump. When the diamond J appears, there needs to
be a change of plans. There is a bridge rule known as the "law of restricted choice" which
states that, when missing two honors, if a defender plays one of the honors,
it is much more likely that the other defender has the other honor. (I don't understand
the probability theory, but my experience definitely validates this principle.)
Therefore, West should take the trump finesse against North.





 




